Bangladesh has emerged as one of the most climate-vulnerable yet climate-indebted nations, according to the newly released Climate Debt Risk Index (CDRI-2025) by Change Initiative. With a national risk score of 65.37 out of 100, projected to rise to 65.63 by 2031, Bangladesh now falls under the ‘High Risk’ category—signaling a dangerous trajectory if immediate action is not taken.
Despite contributing less than 0.5% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Bangladesh now bears one of the highest per capita climate debts at $79.6, with a debt-to-grant ratio of 2.7—almost four times higher than the LDC benchmark of 0.7. The burden is exacerbated by an alarming multilateral climate loan ratio of 0.94, nearly five times the LDC average of 0.19.
The report highlights a deeper crisis: the adaptation-to-mitigation ratio stands at just 0.42, severely underfunding life-saving resilience work. The Index warns that the current international climate finance system—originally envisioned as reparations under the Paris Agreement—has morphed into a climate debt trap, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable nations.
“Protecting biodiversity can reduce climate impacts, yet global forums like COP often fail to deliver results,” said Dr Farhina Ahmed, secretary, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change.
“Bangladesh must respond by addressing unequal carbon emissions, as highlighted by the ICJ judgment, while prioritizing national adaptation plans and NDC implementation.”
Key Findings for Bangladesh:
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- Per Capita Climate Debt: $79.6—among the highest in LDCs
- Debt-to-Grant Ratio: 2.7—nearly 4x the LDC average of 0.7
- Multilateral Climate Loan Ratio: 0.94 vs. 0.19 LDC average
- Adaptation-to-Mitigation Ratio: 0.42—less than half of LDC average (0.88)
- Loan Burden per Ton of CO₂e: $29.52—contradicts Polluter Pays Principle
- Misattributed Fossil Finance: 18.84% of “climate finance” went to fossil fuel projects with a staggering loan-to-grant ratio of 28.8:1.
Sectoral Analysis:
- Energy Sector: Loan-to-grant ratio of 11.99:1
- Transport & Storage: Virtually all debt-financed (1123:1)
- Water Supply: 7.78:1, despite being adaptation-critical
Sectors like agriculture, health, and disaster preparedness remain critically underfunded.
“Grants are limited, loans risky, and overreliance on the private sector heightens financial strain,” said Dr AK Enamul Haque, director general, BIDS.
“True resilience demands local knowledge, technology, and systemic change—incremental fixes are not enough.”
“Without firm pledges and clear governance, the $1B Climate Finance Action Fund, launched in COP29, risks remaining an ambition, not a lifeline for vulnerable nations,” added M Zakir Hossain Khan, chief executive of Change Initiative.
Household Burden Rising
The report reveals that between 2000 and 2023, over 130 million Bangladeshis were displaced or affected by climate hazards, causing $13.6 billion in losses. In the absence of sufficient public adaptation support, households now spend an average of Tk10,700 (~$88) annually on self-financed climate protection—totaling $1.7 billion a year.
“Adaptation finance must be grant-based and equitable, or the world risks a climate debt crisis where survival becomes unaffordable,” said Dr Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed, deputy managing director, PKSF.
The Call for a Just Climate Finance System
Change Initiative outlines a new roadmap grounded in Natural Rights Led Governance (NRLG)—a people-and-nature-centric approach that treats climate finance as a legal obligation, not charity.
Key policy asks include:
- A grant-first approach for adaptation, loss, and damage
- Debt-for-nature swaps and immediate climate debt relief
- Transparent classification systems to prevent misattribution
- A bottom-up Earth Solidarity Fund for direct, unconditional community grants
- Reforms to MDBs to end fossil fuel and unproven energy support
“Unless Bangladesh ensures accountability, transparency, and good governance, access to global finance will remain limited,” warned Shirin Lira, cooperation officer, Embassy of Switzerland.
“During disasters, local communities are the first responders—and without building their capacity, pledges won’t translate into real action.”
“Bangladesh contributes little to global emissions yet suffers the greatest impacts,” added Dr Saimun Parvez, special assistant to chairperson, BNP.
“We must move from loans to justice—this is the time to end climate debt and usher in climate equity.”
