Will Bangladesh go the way of Pakistan?

Brahma Chellaney: The recent violent upheaval that led to a military-backed regime change in Bangladesh, followed by the country’s pleas for $6.5 billion in international bailouts, raise concerns about the future direction of the world’s eighth most-populous country.
The toppling of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government has also triggered an ominous resurgence of radical Islamism, including systematic attacks on religious minorities.

As recently as 2022, Bangladesh was seen internationally as headed toward rapid economic development. But today, nothing better illustrates the unraveling of Bangladesh’s economic success story than its urgent requests for a new $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, as well as $1.5 billion from the World Bank and $1 billion each from the Asian Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

Hasina, while becoming increasingly undemocratic during her over 15-year reign, gave Bangladesh political stability and impressive economic growth, before the global economic fallout from the Ukraine war began weighing on Bangladeshi finances. In fact, the country’s stability and remarkable-growth trajectory stood in stark contrast to the chronic political and economic turmoil in Pakistan, from which Bangladesh seceded in 1971 following a bloody war of liberation that left up to 3 million civilians dead in a genocide perpetrated by the Pakistani army and other pro-Pakistan forces.

Today, the military-picked interim civilian-led regime is struggling to restore the rule of law and revive an economy pummeled by large-scale mob violence and destruction that both preceded and followed Hasina’s overthrow in a youth-led uprising, with her loss of support from the powerful military proving decisive. The military has traditionally been a key player in Bangladeshi politics.

Several hundred people were killed in the violence, many in police firings but also in shootings by Islamists and other rioters, some of whom, according to the new regime, looted rifles from law-enforcement officers and others. Mobs also captured some policemen, beating them to death. At least 44 policemen were killed by mobs, with bodies of some hung from bridges in Dhaka, the nation’s capital.

With the overthrow of the 76-year-old “Iron Lady,” the Islamists have returned with a vengeance, resulting in widespread attacks on the country’s long-persecuted and dwindling Hindu minority.

To make matters worse, political vendettas have gained momentum, as the new regime has engaged in or condoned human rights abuses, including purges, arbitrary arrests, physical assaults on political detainees in courts and curtailment of the rights to liberty and freedom of expression. Academics, journalists, former justices, local officials, lawyers, political opponents and other dissidents have also been jailed on trumped-up murder charges.

In a case last weekend, an ailing, 75-year-old retired Supreme Court justice, after being arrested in a dehumanizing manner, was so badly beaten up in a magistrate’s court, including repeatedly kicked in the groin, that he needed emergency surgery.

All this raises the question whether Bangladesh could go the way of Pakistan, whose broken economy and dysfunctional politics have engendered unending violence, including Islamist extremism and cross-border terrorism. Elections in Pakistan have failed to weaken the vise-like grip of its military on national politics.

Like in Pakistan, the military in Bangladesh has now returned as the final arbiter in national politics, with the army chief becoming the power behind the throne. As if to let the cat out of the bag, M. Sakhawat Hussain, a retired military general holding a minister-level position in the interim regime, warned those pursuing political extortion that he had “requested the army chief to break your legs.” The interim administration, led by an 84-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner, Muhammad Yunus, lacks constitutional legitimacy.

The Bangladeshi military holds substantial commercial assets in multiple economic sectors, like Pakistan’s armed forces.

Just as Pakistan continues to teeter on the brink of default, the Bangladesh economy is in dire straits, with foreign reserves dwindling rapidly, inflation spiraling, the banking sector in turmoil and economic activity largely at a standstill. It will not be easy to restore the confidence of foreign investors after the large-scale looting, vandalism and arson since July. Many countries’ advisories against travel to Bangladesh remain in effect.

Today, the Islamist resurgence poses a serious law-and-order challenge in Bangladesh, as it has long done in Pakistan. In fact, just as Pakistan’s military maintains cozy alliances with militant groups, the Bangladesh military has had a nexus with radical Islamists.

Hasina’s secular government had cracked down on such violent religious groups. But amid the protests, mobs broke into prisons and freed hundreds of radical Islamists and terrorists, including those wanted in India for terror activity. The attacks on prisons began more than two weeks before the government’s toppling, but gathered pace in the aftermath of Hasina’s forced departure to India. The Hizb ut-Tahrir extremist group, which was proscribed by Hasina and some Western governments, is now operating freely in Bangladesh, holding big rallies.

It was Bangladesh’s chief of the army, Gen. Waker-uz-Zaman, who told the nation in a televised address on Aug. 5 that Hasina had quit and left the country, saying he was “taking full responsibility” and would help to “form an interim government.”

But, instead of a broad-based government of national unity, a partisan administration is now in office that includes two student protest leaders, a hard-line Islamist preacher and three retired military generals. This has contributed to continuing purges, as well as revenge attacks and killings.

Bangladesh is a highly polarized country with a poisonous political culture that, over the decades, has fostered a cycle of frenzied violence and deadly retributions. The recent brutal violence is the latest example.

Without sincere efforts to initiate national reconciliation and healing, the deep splits in Bangladesh will likely stoke greater hate, vengeance and economic disruption, with the risk that the nation could become a mirror image of its old nemesis, Pakistan.

 




Why Pakistan is rushing to mend fences with Bangladesh

Pakistan intensifies outreach to Bangladesh, seeking new partnerships as regional power dynamics shift.

Islamabad, Pakistan – When the foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, landed at Dhaka airport on a windswept, overcast morning on August 23, it was the first time in 13 years that such a senior Pakistani official had visited Bangladesh, which had broken from Pakistan 54 years ago.

Dar, who also serves as Pakistan’s deputy prime minister, struck an optimistic tone, calling the “historic” tour the start of “a new phase of our reinvigorated partnership”.

Acknowledging a thaw in bilateral relations, he pointed to the “significant progress” made over the past year.

“We must work together to create an environment where youth from Karachi to Chittagong, Quetta to Rajshahi, Peshawar to Sylhet and Lahore to Dhaka join hands to face challenges and realise their shared dreams,” Dar said, naming cities across both countries.

His visit symbolised a breakthrough after months of diplomatic and military engagements between Pakistan and Bangladesh. Relations have warmed rapidly since the August 2024 ouster of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was widely perceived as being close to India, and who was forced out by massive student-led protests.

But Masood Khalid, Pakistan’s former ambassador to China, cautioned that the past continues to complicate trust-building between the two nations.

“The new government of Bangladesh has responded positively to Pakistan’s gestures. Clearly, there were artificial barriers to close relations that have now been removed,” he told Al Jazeera.

What was now needed, he said, was a “framework for deeper engagement, where constructive dialogue can dispel misunderstandings”.

Military and diplomatic engagements intensify

While Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, leader of Bangladesh’s interim government, twice last year, few analysts expected such a swift improvement in ties, or the regular, high-level exchanges that followed.

In January, Lieutenant General S M Kamr-ul-Hassan of the Bangladesh Army visited Islamabad to meet Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir. In February, Bangladesh’s naval chief, Admiral Mohammad Nazmul Hassan, followed, and two months later, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch travelled to Dhaka.

Dar’s trip had been delayed by Pakistan’s four-day clash with India in May, but July saw Minister of Interior Mohsin Naqvi visiting Dhaka.

Dar’s eventual arrival in Dhaka in August coincided with that of Lieutenant General Muhammad Faizur Rahman, the quartermaster general of the Bangladesh Army in Pakistan, where he held talks with the chairman of the Pakistani Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza.

Delwar Hossain, an international relations professor at the University of Dhaka, said that Pakistan’s “hasty efforts” to strengthen ties are strategic.

“Pakistan was trying to normalise relations even under the Hasina government. Now they see an opportunity to revive the bond they enjoyed in the post-1975 era,” he told Al Jazeera, referencing the period after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founder and Hasina’s father.

Relations between Islamabad and Dhaka normalised under Ziaur Rahman, Bangladesh’s military chief-turned-president, who led the country from late 1975 until he, too, was assassinated in 1981.

“Regime change has historically created a binary of friendship and antagonism in Bangladesh’s ties with India and Pakistan. Pakistan may also want to exploit the current tensions in Bangladesh-India relations. This is a common diplomatic practice,” Hossain added.

Bangladesh’s war of independence legacy

For decades, Islamabad and New Delhi have viewed ties with Dhaka through the prism of their rivalry, a dynamic rooted in Bangladesh’s 1971 war of independence.

When Pakistan and India gained independence from Britain in 1947, Pakistan was created as a Muslim-majority state with two geographically separated wings.

The western wing, home to about 34 million people of diverse ethnicities, was seen as dominant. The eastern wing, East Pakistan — which would become Bangladesh — was more populous, with more than 42 million Bengali speakers. India stood between the two parts of Pakistan.

As grievances grew in the east, India supported the Bengali liberation struggle. Pakistan’s military and allied militias carried out atrocities, killing hundreds of thousands of people and allegedly raping an estimated 200,000 women.

With India’s military backing, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his Awami League party led Bangladesh to independence. He became the country’s founding president.

Hasina, who led Bangladesh for 16 years before her removal last year, is widely seen as close to India, where she has been living since last year.

Aizaz Chaudhry, Pakistan’s former foreign secretary, said that the shared grievances over India’s “regional hegemony” have spurred Islamabad and Dhaka to repair ties.

“Bangladeshis have experienced Indian hegemony, and we, in Pakistan, saw it in the May conflict. Both nations now understand the need for balance of power in South Asia,” he told Al Jazeera.

In May, India and Pakistan fought a brief but intense four-day aerial war after gunmen killed 26 people, mostly tourists, in an attack in Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir. India has blamed Pakistan for the attack, allegations that Islamabad rejects.

Shahab Enam Khan, the executive director of the Bangladesh Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs, described Dhaka’s relationship with New Delhi as “lukewarm”, despite India being a significant neighbour, but added that foreign policy is driven by economic imperatives.

“Anti-India sentiment is often exaggerated,” he said. “Bangladesh historically avoids viewing relations, especially with Pakistan, through a purely security or military lens, preferring economic and regional cooperation.”

China’s growing role

Regional dynamics are further complicated by China’s growing influence in South Asia. Beijing, a close ally of Islamabad, had strong relations with Hasina, who successfully juggled her friendship with India and China – though the two Asian giants are otherwise rivals.

Dhaka University’s Hossain said that China had managed to retain a significant presence in Bangladesh even after Hasina’s ouster. In March, Yunus visited Beijing, followed by Bangladesh Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman’s weeklong China trip in August.

“Bangladesh is considering buying 12 J-10C fighter jets to boost its air power,” he added, referring to Chinese-made planes that Pakistan also has, and that Islamabad used in the May conflict. China is also Pakistan’s closest strategic partner, and the source of both economic loans and investments as well as military equipment.

“These developments are bringing Dhaka and Islamabad closer, transforming ties into a strong partnership,” Hossain said.

Trade, politics as countries seek partnership

Dar’s two-day visit to Bangladesh was packed with meetings, including talks with Yunus and Adviser for Foreign Affairs Touhid Hossain.

He also met leaders from a range of political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), and the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP), which spearheaded the protests that toppled Hasina.

Those meetings were particularly significant as Bangladesh is preparing for elections in early 2026, said Abdul Basit, a former Pakistani high commissioner to India. “No matter what happens between India and Bangladesh, Pakistan and Bangladesh will forge ahead,” he told Al Jazeera. “We have issues from the past, but they can be handled skilfully and should not become barriers.”

Both could benefit from closer economic relations, too, suggested Pakistan’s former China ambassador Khalid and Dhaka University’s Hossain.

Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 6 percent since 2021, is among South Asia’s fastest-growing economies. Pakistan lags behind, recording 2.5 percent growth last year. At the moment, bilateral trade is modest, tilted towards Pakistan, whose exports to Bangladesh totalled $661m in 2024, compared with $57m in imports.

But if both countries try and revitalise trade relations, Hossain said they could each benefit from the other – both as a source of raw materials and as a potential market.

The academic said Bangladesh may benefit from importing cotton and textile products, rice, cement, fruits and processed food from Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan can import jute and jute products, hydrogen peroxide, chemicals and tobacco products from Bangladesh.

“Bangladesh and Pakistan have a combined population of 430 million”, he pointed out, “which is more than twice the size of West Europe”.

Historical grievances remain

The deepest fault line in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations is the legacy of the 1971 war. Dhaka continues to demand a formal apology for the atrocities.

Then there is the dispute over the status of more than 200,000 Urdu-speaking Muslims in Bangladesh. After the partition in 1947, the community had mostly moved to East Pakistan from Bihar in present-day India. East Pakistan — today Bangladesh — was closer to Bihar geographically than West Pakistan. But Bangladesh, whose formation in 1971 was built on Bengali nationalism, has only given Urdu-speaking Muslims limited rights, and wants Pakistan to take them, something Islamabad is reluctant to do.

Bangladesh also seeks a division of the pre-1971 assets of the state of Pakistan, and the transfer of aid that was promised by West Pakistan to East Pakistan in 1970 after a devastating cyclone, in which an estimated 300,000 people died. The slow and largely inadequate response of the West Pakistan-based government is cited by many historians as a major catalyst for the liberation war that led to the formation of Bangladesh.

Still, Chaudhry, the former Pakistani foreign secretary, argued that public sentiment in both countries supports reconciliation.

“People of Pakistan are also as sad about the events of 1971 as the people of Bangladesh. I think this pain is common, and people in both countries now want to move on,” Chaudhry said.

However, Dhaka University’s Hossain said that, despite strong support from the current political forces for strengthening Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, issues related to the 1971 war continue to remain a barrier for improved ties.

“It is important to remember that the ouster of Hasina from power has not fundamentally changed the mindsets of the people of Bangladesh about the liberation war and an expectation from Pakistan for healing the past,” Hossain said.

Still, he added, Dhaka did not want to stay stuck in the past either.

“Diplomacy is a dynamic process. Both the countries can move forward for cooperation in economic, diplomatic and cultural sectors, while they will continue to maintain the healing process,” he said.




Jacobson: US doesn’t support any party, expects fair polls in Bangladesh

US Chargé d’Affaires in Dhaka Tracey Ann Jacobson on Monday said the US does not support any particular party, politician, or election outcome, as it expects fair elections in an atmosphere of peace and security early next year.

“The US embassy or the US government does not support any particular party, but we do meet political parties to understand their platforms and their goals. We do not support any particular politician, but we do meet politicians to understand their goals, and we do not support any particular outcome. That is for the people of Bangladesh to decide, and we wish you all the best in doing it,” she said.

The US envoy made the remarks while talking to reporters after a meeting with Chief Election Commissioner A M M Nasir Uddin at Nirbachan Bhaban in the capital.

Tracey Ann Jacobson said she came to the EC with some of her colleagues to listen and to learn and understand, as there are so many rumours and conspiracy theories out there.

Noting that she wants to be very clear what the US government position is, the envoy said the US supports the interim government led by Professor Yunus and the Central Election Commission in charting a pathway to free and fair elections early next year.

“We hope those elections will happen in an atmosphere of peace and security, and we hope they will lead to a successful democratic government that will represent the aspirations and dreams of the Bangladeshi people,” she said.

Jacobson led a three-member delegation from the US Embassy to the meeting. Two other delegation members are David Moo (political chief at the embassy) and Firoze Ahmed (political specialist).

 




Bangladeshis lose 5.5 years of life to world’s most polluted air

DHAKA: Air pollution shortens the average Bangladeshi’s life by 5.5 years, making it the world’s most affected country, latest data shows, as the government vows to act by the year’s end.

According to last week’s Air Quality Life Index report by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute, “air pollution is the greatest external threat to life expectancy” in Bangladesh, which is currently “the world’s most polluted country.”

All of Bangladesh’s 166.8 million people live in areas where the yearly average level of fine particulate pollution exceeds both the World Health Organization’s guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter of air and the country’s national limit of 35 micrograms. In places like the capital, Dhaka, the concentration was above 76 micrograms.

“The average Bangladeshi resident could live 5.5 years longer if particulate pollution met the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline,” the report says. In Dhaka, the impact of toxic air is particularly severe, slashing the average life expectancy by 6.9 years.

The report also shows that the air quality is quickly worsening despite the government’s attempts to address the problem.

“It’s very concerning for us. I doubt if there are any other countries in the world that witnessed such a grave situation,” said Dr. Ahmad Kamruzzaman Majumder, professor at the Department of Environmental Science at Stamford University in Dhaka.

“Air pollution has reached such a severe level here that no research is needed to identify it, as one can see it with the naked eye.”

Smog is an everyday reality for residents of Bangladeshi cities, as it shrouds them almost every morning. But what is more dangerous is the pollution that the eye cannot see: particulate matter, PM2.5 — tiny airborne particles less than 2.5 micrometers wide that can penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream.

PM2.5 levels in Bangladesh have been on a sharp rise since the late 1990s. The only time they dropped was during the coronavirus pandemic in 2022, but that trend did not last.

“In last year’s AQLI report, our average life expectancy was reduced by 4.8 years, and this year it’s reported as 5.5 years,” Majumder said.

“The situation is very alarming. It shows that the state has failed to ensure a safe environment for the protection of its people. Bangladesh didn’t reject this report, which means the Bangladeshi government also agrees with the findings of this report. The state can’t evade the responsibility here.”

As the main sources of pollution, he listed increasing use of fossil fuels and fumes from brick kilns, which burn coal or wood to fire bricks.

“Every year, an additional 100,000 vehicles hit the streets of Dhaka. Many of these vehicles operate without proper fitness checks, contributing significantly to air pollution,” he said.

“Transboundary air pollution from neighboring countries is also affecting us. The lack of proper waste management, including open burning, is also a big factor.”

In response to the latest air pollution report, the government vows to step up its efforts by the year’s end, although the task is not easy, with Dr. Ziaul Huq, director of air quality management at the Department of Environment, admitting that “every source of air pollution” exists in Bangladesh’s environment.

“We are trying to withdraw the vehicles without fitness checks from the streets, but we are yet to see any success in this sector,” he told the News.

“Big industries that are responsible for air pollution, we will bring them under constant monitoring. A device will be installed at their factory furnace, and our officials will continuously monitor the emission results centrally. If any deviation is found, we will intervene immediately. This work will begin within the next two months under the ‘Bangladesh Clean Air’ project.”

While not all sources of pollution can be controlled, some, until now, have not been properly addressed.

“In the case of Dhaka, transboundary pollution is responsible for 30 percent to 35 percent of air pollution. This situation is beyond our control. From October to April, 35 percent of air pollution in Dhaka comes from outside the country,” he said.

“Thirty-nine percent of Dhaka’s air pollution is caused by the burning of waste and firewood. We couldn’t address this issue properly. Our efforts are there.”

 




Army chief Gen Waker-uz-Zaman meets Yunus, President to get files on officers’ promotions cleared

Gen Zaman impressed upon Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus that ICT was not the right forum to try eight Army officers allegedly involved in committing crimes against humanity during the July-August 2024 uprising

After exercising restraint for more than a month, Bangladesh Amry chief General Waker-uz-Zaman today took it upon himself to meet Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus to obtain his approval on all pending files related to the promotion of officers in the ranks of lieutenant colonels, colonels and brigadiers.

While much of Bangladeshi media speculated on Gen Zaman’s meeting with Yunus, especially in the backdrop of the deteriorating law and order situation in the country, the Army chief urged Yunus to delink the names of officers facing criminal prosecution in the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) where several of them were sought to be tried for their alleged involvement in extra-judicial killings and other misdemeanours during the July-August 2024 uprising.

Amid widespread speculation, Gen Zaman also met President Mohammad Shahabuddin ‘Chuppu’ to not only brief him about his recent weeklong (August 21-28) visit to China – which was also taken up with Yunus today – but also the presidential seal against all 70 files related to the officers’ promotion.

“The Army chief waited for over a month after the exercise initiated by the Army Promotion Board which met between July 21 and 28 to discuss and deliberate on each promotion case involving lieutenant colonels, colonels, brigadiers and majors general. Today, he got all the files cleared in one go,” a senior government official said.

As far as the prosecution of about eight Army officers – allegedly involved in committing crimes against humanity in cases related to the July-August uprising – Gen Zaman was of the view that they could be tried in some other judicial forum and not the ICT which has faced criticism for being not being a judicially and legally sound platform and instead being a place for “settling political scores”.

Maj Gen (retd) Ziaul Ehsan is among the eight officers who have been charged with committing crimes against humanity during the July-August 2024 uprising.

Gen Zaman met Bangladesh’s Chief Justice Syed Refaat Ahmed to impress upon him the “need and urgency” to delink the eight Army officers from being proceeded against at the ICT. He also sought to know the legal bases and process involved in dissociating the eight Army officers from legal cases that the ICT was overseeing.

Yesterday, Principal Staff Officer in the Armed Forces Division, Lieutenant General Kamrul Hassan met Yunus to apprise him of the Army’s preparedness and deployment during the proposed February 2026 general elections for which no firm date has yet been fixed.

While Gen Zaman today set off for Bangabhaban, the presidential palace, US Chargé d’Affaires Tracey Ann Jacobson was scheduled to meet Chief Election Commissioner A M M Nasir Uddin, pointing to the shadowy role that the US embassy in Dhaka has been playing in Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Over the past three weeks, Jacobson sought to embroil herself ever deeply in Bangladeshi politics, meeting representatives of various parties and Chief Justice Refaat Ahmed most recently.

Meanwhile, the arrival in Dhaka of former US Ambassador Peter D Haas late on Saturday night has not gone unnoticed with different political and security quarters expecting him to become “politically active” during his week-long sojourn. Haas is a strategic adviser with Texas-based Excelerate Energy which has an establishment in Cox’s Bazar.

 

 




Sheikh Hasina’s ‘inner circle’ was subverted by US ‘deep state’: Awami League sources

Over a year after Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power following a US deep state-led regime change operation, Awami League sources spill the beans on three ministers who ‘collaborated’ with American officials

Three key ministers in the erstwhile Sheikh Hasina government were effectively subverted by the American ‘deep state’ and guided in particular ways to act against the interests of the Awami League regime in the weeks and months before August 5, 2024.

An ongoing thorough evaluation and assessment of why the Hasina government and the Awami League failed in preventing the massive students’ protest in July-August 2024 uncovers the shadowy roles played by Private Investment and Industry Adviser to the them prime minister, Salman F Rahman, Law Minister Anisul Haq and Minister of State for Information Mohammad Arafat to advance the aims and objectives of the US ‘deep state’.

Rahman and Haq were together arrested under mysterious circumstances from Dhaka’s Sadarghat area on the night of August 13, 2024.

There is little or no information related to Arafat’s whereabouts even as a cross-section of Bangladesh’s former and current officialdom, including security agencies, suspect that he may have used his contacts in the western world to flee abroad.

Speaking with Northeast News on the condition of anonymity, Awami League sources who were familiar with the last weeks of the Hasina regime said that Rahman, Haq and Arafat acted in ways that “harmed the interests” of the government in general and the then prime minister in particular.

This was corroborated by a former senior minister in Sheikh Hasina’s cabinet, who was familiar with Salman F Rahman aka ‘Darbesh’s’ meetings with American officials in the US. This former minister said that Darbesh effectively “shut us out” from approaching Sheikh Hasina on government business.

“They were found to be in direct touch with serving and retired US State Department officials not only in Bangladesh but also abroad since at least 2023, if not earlier,” an Awami League functionary close to the ousted Hasina said.

What is significant is that while Hasina never suspected the three of “betraying” her and the regime, she is now familiar with the precise roles played by the trio.

While some Awami League sources said they suspected the US deep state’s regime change operations began as far back as 2018, after the “questionable” election that brought Hasina back to power, other party sources said that the ball was set rolling in April-May 2023 when overt noises over “free and fair” elections were begun to be made by the State Department and its representative in Dhaka, the then Ambassador Peter D Haas, followed by Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu.

In this context, a June 2, 2022, intelligence report by an Indian central agency is revealing. It said, “US ambassador Peter Haas, who is constantly reminding BD (Bangladesh) of the need for restoring democracy, is part of the broader plan to bring down Hasina’s Government”.

By September end, 2023, when she made her last official visit to the United States, Hasina had realised that the American ‘deep state’ intended to unseat her from power.

“In a closed-door meeting with some close party functionaries, she placed six vexed issues that her government was confronted with as a consequence of US pressure.

“These included a proposal for Bangladesh to join the Quad, signing the GESOMIA and ACSA deals, allowing American companies to explore and exploit 26 oil and gas-rich areas and the broader issue of Myanmar as envisaged by the US under its Burma Act,” a party functionary said, adding, “Her chin rested on her hands. She appeared perturbed and worried. She could see the threat to her government”.

Hasina, these Awami Leagues functionaries said, was not prepared to give in to the pressures from the US. The sources said that she did not want to give away all the 26 oil and gas fields to US companies and was interested in “dividing these up among two to three multinational firms”.

Meanwhile, Salman F Rahman aka ‘Darbesh’, who had squirmed his way up the Awami League hierarchy and had placed himself in No. 2 position – effectively the deputy prime minister – maintained a hawk eye on Hasina, taking note of who she spoke with or met. During the Washington DC-leg of Hasina’s two-nation (Japan and US) visit in April-May 2023, the then prime minister was booked to stay at the Ritz Carlton Hotel. Instead of taking up a room at this hotel, Darbesh chose to check in to St Regis Hotel.

“The drive between St Regis Hotel and Ritz Carlton would take between 20-30 minutes,” said this source. There was to be a meeting to work out the details of launching a new media platform to counter the “propaganda” launched by some Bangladeshi media, including newspapers and online portals.

“Besides Darbesh, Mohammad Arafat was to be there too for the meeting that would finalise the details of the proposed media platform. Just as I was about to enter the meeting, I saw Marcia Bernicat (who was Ambassador to Bangladesh between 2015 and 2018) leave a room in which Darbesh was ensconced,” the source said.

“When I asked Darbesh two questions related to this meeting with Bernicat, his response was evasive. First, he said this was a separate meeting. Secondly, Darbesh said he did not want his guest seen among others,” the source said, adding, “the previous evening, there was a meeting between Bangladesh’s Ambassador to the US Mohammad Imran and Hasina. The PM’s son Sajib Wazed Joy was also in the meeting”.

There were at least six Americans, including William Milam, the then Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Afrin Akter, a foreign policy analyst and South Asia specialist and Bernicat who were in regular touch with Darbesh, the source said.

Bernicat and two other US State Department officials were sacked by the Donald Trump administration in the second half of January 2025. At that time, Bernicat held the post of Director-General of the US Foreign Service and Director of global talent leading the recruitment, assignment and career development of the State Department’s workforce.

“What stunned me was that later, after the Bangladeshi delegation returned to Dhaka, Darbesh conveyed through Arafat that the new media platform project was no longer required”, the source said, lamenting the “hard work that had gone into preparing a feasibility study and other steps toward that direction”.

Darbesh’s last visit to the US was in October-end 2023, when she had a meeting with US Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights Uzra Zeya.

In December 2024, an Awami League functionary in New York was told by the chief of staff of US Representative From New York (D) and Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Gregory Weldon Meeks that “something major would happen in Bangladesh in six months”.

Sheikh Hasina had little or no inkling of the conspiracy against her. “It was only a few months ago (in 2025) that I had the opportunity to share with Hasina the details of what I could piece together. Her facial muscles tightened as I narrated the extent and depth of the conspiracy that was hatched against her. She then instructed me to prepare a written report,” the source said.

August 3, 2024, was a critical date in Bangladesh’s history in general and Sheikh Hasina’s regime in particular. By that time, the students’ movement had taken a deadly turn, as violence and lawlessness became the order of the day. The first phase of violence – July 16 to 20 – had claimed several lives. The second phase – August 4-6 – was to be deadlier still.

“During a televised interview, a comment by Arafat, that the government had plenty of bullets to counter the students’ movement, proved disastrous, fueling ever more anger against the Hasina regime. This was not foolish; it was deliberate,” the source said.

“On August 3, 2024, the prime minister had convened a meeting in her office. The three services chiefs, the Inspector General of Police and the Directors General of DGFI and NSI were present at the meeting. At one point, the Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal asked Gen Waker-uz-Zaman what the police should do. Gen Zaman responded, saying ‘do not worry, the Army will take over,” the source said.

Hasina, the source said, had the time to “sack him”, but for reasons best known to her, she did not.

The Awami League as a party had also reached a point of indecisiveness or perhaps unseen hands held it in check. The party’s July karmasuchi (programme) included shok michhil (condolence rallies) in every ward of the Dhaka metropolitan area. Besides, there was a plan to bring in 400,000-500,000 party activists and supporters into the capital. “They were to be put up at the Bangabandhu Sammelan Kendra (the Bangabandhu International Conference Centre) at Sher-e-Bangla Nagar in Dhaka,” the source said.

On July 30, having sensed that the students’ movement would intensify, Salman F Rahman asked Sheikh Rehana to reach Dhaka post haste from the UK.

“She was given the responsibility of telling Sheikh Hasina that in the event there is bloodshed, the Awami League rally would need to be cancelled. The responsibility for calling off the rally was devolved on Awami League office Secretary Biplab Barua.

“When party leaders backed going ahead with the rally, Sheikh Rehana exploded in rage, telling the assembled party leaders ‘do as you are being told to do’. The planned rally was cancelled, preventing the Awami League from putting up an effective counter-force against the students, Islami Chhatra Shibir, Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP activists and supporters,” the source revealed.

On August 5, Sheikh Hasina resigned, leaving Dhaka for New Delhi.

Close to a year after Sheikh Hasina’s government was toppled in a carefully orchestrated regime change operation, party leaders in Kolkata are bitter with the Awami League leadership.

“They complained that they had been paralysed when the party was in power and everything went well for the organisation. They had no opportunity to candidly express their views either on issues related to the party or the government. So, there was no honest criticism, there was no opportunity to evaluate. This sprung from the fear that they would lose their party or government posts,” Awami League sources said.

Party sources now feel that even as the US deep state had penetrated the Awami League’s upper echelon, a key factor that led to Sheikh Hasina’s “isolation” was her “disastrous” China visit between July 8 and 10.

She returned home at least a day before her scheduled date of arrival, indicating that the China visit did not go as well as planned.

This had the effect of angering India too, Awami League sources said, adding that the “China visit was a wrong strategic decision as far Bangladesh’s relations with India were concerned”.




EC preparing for election despite challenges

Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) AMM Nasir Uddin on Saturday said the Election Commission (EC) is preparing to hold the next national election within a short timeframe despite various challenges. He said this while speaking at a views-exchange meeting on the national election at the Commission’s Rangpur regional office.

“Restoring public trust in the election system is now a major challenge. People have lost confidence in the system. Bringing them back to the polling centres will be a big task,” he said.

The CEC said the election schedule is unlikely to be announced immediately.

“The election date will be disclosed two months before the schedule is announced,” he said.

Nasir Uddin stressed that the EC will not work for or against any particular party in the national election.

“We will work on behalf of the 18 crore people of the country. Misinformation is being spread on social media through artificial intelligence which the EC is trying to address,” he added.

Calling upon all to exercise their voting rights, the CEC said casting a vote is not only a civic duty but also a moral responsibility. He reiterated that the EC is making the highest possible efforts to conduct the upcoming parliamentary elections in a transparent manner.

 




Times Square shooting leaves 3 hurt, suspect in custody

Three people were shot and wounded in New York’s Times Square, the New York Police Department said on Saturday (9 August). The people – an 18-year-old female, 19 19-year-old male, and a 65-year-old male – are in a stable condition in hospital, an NYPD spokesperson said. A 17-year-old male is in custody, the NYPD added. The police also recovered a firearm.

The shooting took place at around 1:20am ET (0520 GMT) and followed a verbal altercation with one of the victims, the NYPD added. It said it was not known at this time whether the shooter or the victims knew each other. Mass shootings are relatively common in the United States, where guns are widely available.

The incident at one of New York’s most iconic tourist spots comes after July’s high-profile shooting in a Manhattan office tower, which left four people dead, including a senior Blackstone executive and an NYPD officer.

New York experienced record-low shooting incidents and victims in the first seven months of this year, and in July, according to a statement published by the city’s police department on 4 August. Crime is a key electoral issue for America’s largest city, which is set to hold mayoral elections in November.

 




Anisul Islam Mahmud, Ruhul Amin Howlader lead new faction

In just a year and a half, the Jatiya Party (JaPa) has split again, this time from GM Quader’s leadership. The new faction has elected Anisul Islam Mahmud as chairman, ABM Ruhul Amin Howlader as secretary general, and Kazi Firoz Rashid as senior co-chairman. They were chosen at the party’s 10th National Council, held today (9 August) at the Emmanuel Party Centre in Dhaka. Former JaPa secretary general Mujibul Haque Chunnu was elected executive chairman of the council. Leaders said a full committee would be announced within 15 days.

Speaking to The Business Standard, JaPa (Quader) secretary general Barrister Shamim Haider Patwary insisted that GM Quader remains the leader of the main party and that grassroots activists are united under him. “Those who arranged Saturday’s council are expelled leaders,” he said.

“The council is illegal,” Shamim added.

However, the breakaway faction claims it represents the majority. Of JaPa’s 42 praesidium members, 22 have joined the new group led by Anisul and Ruhul Amin. This is the sixth major split in JaPa’s history, with previous breakaways often creating parties under the same name but with different leaders in brackets. Currently, four registered parties bear the “Jatiya Party” name, with another unregistered faction aligned with the BNP.

The most recent split before this came in February last year, when Raushan Ershad declared herself chairperson and “dismissed” GM Quader and Chunnu from their posts.

The latest division also follows a legal setback for Quader’s leadership. On 30 July , a Dhaka court temporarily barred him and joint office secretary Mahmud Alam from carrying out party activities, reinstating Anisul, Ruhul Amin, Chunnu, and several praesidium members. The order came after Chunnu and nine others filed a civil suit on 27 July, challenging their removal.

At Saturday’s council, Chunnu publicly apologised for JaPa’s role in what he called “illegal elections” under the Awami League’s rule. “If there was any moral mistake, we unconditionally apologise to the people of the country,” he said.

He also admitted that the party may not have always made the right political decisions, but urged supporters to forgive past mistakes. Former co-chairman Syed Abu Hossain Babla, now part of the Anisul-Ruhul faction, told TBS that theirs is “the legitimate Jatiya Party,” adding that they have the support of 22 praesidium members, three of the party’s five co-chairmen, and communication with Raushan Ershad.

Jatiya Party Secretary General Barrister Shamim Haider Patwary expressed his hope that the party will play a positive role in Bangladeshi politics under GM Quader’s leadership.

“Under the leadership of party chairman GM Quader, grassroots leaders and activists remain united. The party will be the place of trust for all the people of this country,” Shamim said.

He made these remarks while addressing a views exchange meeting with the Jatiya Tarun Party at the party’s central office auditorium in Dhaka’s Kakrail yesterday. Patwary also urged party leaders and activists to remain united, avoiding being misled by conspiracies.

JaPa’s first split occurred in 1996 when Anwar Hossain Manju broke away to contest elections with Awami League support. Subsequent divisions took place in 1999, 2003, 2013, and during internal disputes after the death of founder Hussain Muhammad Ershad in 2019. The party’s last split before this year was in February 2024, amid tensions between GM Quader and Raushan Ershad.

 




UK minister Rushanara Ali resigns after tenant eviction claims

Bangladesh-born British minister for dealing with homelessness, Rushanara Ali, resigned from the government late Thursday after it was revealed that she had considerably hiked the rent at a property she owns.

“It is with a heavy heart that I offer you my resignation as a minister,” said Ali, under-secretary of state for homelessness in the Labour government, in her letter to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Her resignation came a day after the I-Paper daily reported she had given four tenants four months to leave a London house she owned and then leased it again a few weeks later with the rent more than 700 pounds higher. Several associations campaigning against homelessness and opposition lawmakers said the 50-year-old had to resign.

“Further to recent reporting, I wanted to make it clear that at all times I have followed all relevant legal requirements. I believe I took my responsibilities and duties seriously, and the facts demonstrate this,” Ali said in her letter, released by the prime minister’s office.

“However, it is clear that continuing in my role will be a distraction from the ambitious work of the government,” she added.

In response, Starmer thanked Ali for her “diligent work” at the housing ministry, adding: “Your efforts to put in measures to repeal the Vagrancy Act will have a significant impact.”

Ali’s early life began in Sylhet before she moved to the UK with her family at the age of 7. She pursued higher education at St John’s College, Oxford, where she earned a bachelor’s degree in philosophy, politics and economics.